Analysis of various odds adjustments (Part 1)

Analysis of various odds adjustments (Part 1)

This series of articles will introduce some ideas for advanced odds analysis combined with Asian handicap. Before the introduction, I want to first explain the time point of analyzing the odds data, because the odds data of most games will change at different times. First of all, we’d better be able to understand the odds data for each game on the next day one day in advance, you need to record all kinds of doubts and characteristics, combined with fundamentals and Asian handicap, some games we can basically look forward to a direction one day in advance.

If the time cannot be arranged, then at noon on the day of the game, you must study all the odds of the game that night, because the data at this time is basically accurate. If it is the Asian League and the early European League, the data two to three hours before the game is the most accurate. The data in the last hour before the start of the game often fluctuates a lot, so try not to pay too much attention to it.

Many bettors always like to wait until very close to the match before deciding on the direction of their betting, this is very wrong and it is easy to be misled by the final operation of the betting company. This is also what we have learned about real existence in the betting company. All the odds data we will talk about in the future are based on the data at this point in time, and the last hour's change is not included in the calculation.


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We can find many websites on the search engine that can display the odds data given by all officially registered betting companies for each game. We will find that most of the games are adjusted in one direction by almost all the betting companies, some games all reduce the odds of the home win, some all reduce the odds of draw, some all increase the odds of home win, and so on. But there are also games where the odds are very stable from start to finish, with little change, it's just that the return rate of the initial odds is low, and the return rate should be increased in the later period, and the odds for winning, losing and drawing are averagely higher.

Let's start with the situation where the odds remain unchanged. If the odds of home win (or away win) are below 2.0, then generally the odds of draw are in the middle value, and the odds of away win (or home win) are the highest (except for individual exceptions). In this case, if all betting companies do not adjust the odds, the probability of winning by the dominant team will reach more than 90%, This is especially true if the two teams are in the same state.

But this is not 100% after all, when you encounter this situation, you must carefully refer to how those companies that like to confuse are making adjustments, and what odds are given by honest and conservative companies. In this case, the winning rate of the dominant team reaches more than 90%, and the greatest possibility left is upset, the probability of drawing is the lowest, we have only encountered one game in this situation for so many years, and it was a 2:2 draw at the last minute. Therefore, if we can rule out the possibility of upset, we can safely bet on the dominant team to win in this situation where the odds do not change.


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But if the odds of the match with the highest draw odds remain the same, the situation is different. For example, for odds like 2.5(Win)-3.2(Draw)-2.7(Loss), all betting companies do not make adjustments, then the possibility of drawing is very high. Especially in Ligue 1 and Serie A, it is clear that both teams often draw and the odds remain the same, The Asian handicap has always maintained the highest odds of a draw, so the result is usually a draw.

In the Ligue 1 league, some mid-lower teams are conservative in their playing style and are easy to draw, no matter how the betting company operates, it cannot avoid betting on drawing, the more they lower the odds for a draw, the more they will attract more draw bets. So sometimes they just don’t make changes at all, make bettors feel that "there is no such cheap draw for us to guess", because after all, the odds for a draw are the highest among wins,losses and draws. The odds for a draw are not reduced at all, and neither team has an advantage, which will make people afraid to bet the draw. Many people still think that "in the betting with the highest draw odds, a draw will not happen". This is a "reverse thinking" method used in betting companies.

So it needs to be emphasized that analyzing odds must have good psychological quality and thinking ability. Of course, this situation is not all draw games. What is the specific situation must be analyzed comprehensively. The article just introduces this way of odds change and the analytical thinking mode we should have.


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The "return rate" mentioned above, I will introduce it to you here, for the five major leagues and top international events, some large betting companies will give a 95%-97% return rate, but some companies will only maintain a return rate of 88%-90%, some companies are even lower. If a company with a high return rate gives a home win of 1.8, a company with a very low return rate also gives a home win of 1.8, then the home win rate for a company with low return rate is much lower, which means that this company is relatively less supportive of home wins. Some companies will suddenly give a return rate of 99.8% for individual matches, which is equivalent to no profit, then this company must be very, very sure about the result of this game. If the odds of this company are clearly inclined to win or lose, the chance of this option is very slim, please pay attention to it.


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